

AI Predictions




AI Consensus
4 of 4 AIs predict: Norway Win
RESULT: Norway 3-2 Senegal · 4 AIs correct
Expected Goals
| AI | NOR xG | SEN xG | Total | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.90 | 1.10 | 3.00 | 60% | |
| 1.95 | 0.85 | 2.80 | 42% | |
| 1.80 | 0.90 | 2.70 | 45% | |
| 1.85 | 0.75 | 2.60 | 42% | |
| Average | 1.88 | 0.90 | 2.77 | 47% |
Prediction Analysis
“Market prices Norway at ~44% to win but squad + context analysts show a clear attacking gulf (Haaland + Ødegaard) and Senegal must push forward — I assign Norway 55% to win, creating value vs the market.”
“Norway at 68% win probability vs market's 46.5% (implied 46.5%). Squad Analyst, Form Analyst, and Context Analyst all converge on 65-70% Norway win probability. Haaland's elite finishing (8.20 rating) vs Senegal's weak attack (Jackson 5.90) creates decisive edge. Recent form (4-1 vs Iraq) and tournament momentum strongly favor Norway.”
“My model assigns a 55% probability to a Norway win, which is significantly higher than the 46.5% implied by the market odds. This edge is driven by the stark contrast in form between the teams' key attackers.”
“Squad, form, and context analysts all strongly favor Norway (elite attack led by Haaland, strong recent trajectory, group leadership) giving ~58% win probability vs market's 46.5% implied; Senegal's limited attack and declining form create clear value on the favorite at neutral venue.”
Premium AI Predictions
PRO4 of 4 Premium AIs predict: Norway Win
From ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, Grok
xG Home
1.84
xG Away
0.92
Total Goals
2.76
BTTS
58%
Full analysis from Opus 4.8, GPT-5.5 & more
Upgrade — $9Last updated Jun 22, 4:24 AM (free)
AI Predictions

Score: 2-1
xG: 1.9 vs 1.1

Score: 2-1
xG: 1.9 vs 0.8

Score: 2-0
xG: 1.8 vs 0.9

Score: 2-0
xG: 1.9 vs 0.8
AI Reasoning
“Norway are the clear pick: Haaland's elite finishing and Ødegaard's creativity tilt the balance on a neutral pitch while Senegal will likely press and open space. I back Norway outright (biggest edge vs 1X2) and hedge the tactical expectation with Over 2.5 — an open, attack-favouring game where both sides have goals in them.”
Model: GPT-5 Mini
Expected Goals (xG)
5 goals from 3.80 xG
Team Statistics
Match Events
Formation
Top Performers
Starting XI & Substitutes
Player Stats
Norway| Player | Min | Rtg | G | A | Sh | SoT | Pas | Tkl | YC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erling Haaland ★ | 90 | 8.7 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 11 | — | 0 |
| Marcus Pedersen | 77 | 7.5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 26 | — | 0 |
| Martin Ødegaard | 90 | 7.2 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 45 | 1 | 0 |
| Patrick Berg | 45 | 7.2 | — | 1 | — | — | 13 | — | 0 |
| Torbjørn Heggem | 84 | 7 | — | 0 | — | — | 41 | 2 | 0 |
| Julian Ryerson | 13 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | — | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Andreas Schjelderup | 19 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | — | 8 | — | 0 |
| Kristoffer Ajer | 90 | 6.7 | — | 0 | 1 | 1 | 33 | 3 | 0 |
| David Møller Wolfe | 90 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | — | 22 | 1 | 0 |
| Sander Berge | 90 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | — | 45 | 1 | 0 |
| Fredrik Aursnes | 45 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | — | 16 | 1 | 0 |
| Alexander Sørloth | 84 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | — | 32 | 1 | 0 |
| Ørjan Nyland | 90 | 6.6 | — | 0 | — | — | 40 | — | 0 |
| Antonio Nusa | 71 | 6.6 | — | 0 | 1 | — | 10 | — | 0 |
| Leo Østigård | 17 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Oscar Bobb | 17 | 6.3 | — | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | — | 0 |
Player Stats
Senegal| Player | Min | Rtg | G | A | Sh | SoT | Pas | Tkl | YC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ismaïla Sarr | 90 | 8.2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 1 | 0 |
| Moussa Niakhaté | 90 | 7.9 | — | 0 | — | — | 68 | 2 | 0 |
| Idrissa Gana Gueye | 90 | 7.3 | — | 0 | 1 | — | 70 | 1 | 0 |
| Pathé Ismaël Ciss | 27 | 7.3 | — | 0 | — | — | 22 | 1 | 0 |
| Ibrahim Mbaye | 36 | 7.2 | — | 0 | — | — | 16 | — | 0 |
| Sadio Mané | 90 | 7 | — | 1 | — | — | 34 | 3 | 0 |
| Nicolas Jackson | 90 | 6.9 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 19 | — | 0 |
| Mory Diaw | 27 | 6.9 | — | 0 | — | — | 13 | — | 0 |
| Ismail Jakobs | 36 | 6.7 | — | 0 | — | — | 11 | 2 | 0 |
| Pape Gueye | 54 | 6.5 | — | 0 | — | — | 30 | 1 | 0 |
| Krépin Diatta | 90 | 6.3 | — | 0 | — | — | 61 | 1 | 0 |
| Pape Matar Sarr | 18 | 6.3 | — | 0 | 1 | — | 21 | — | 0 |
| Lamine Camara | 63 | 6.2 | — | 0 | 2 | — | 34 | 1 | 0 |
| Edouard Mendy | 63 | 6 | — | 0 | — | — | 16 | — | 0 |
| El Hadji Malick Diouf | 54 | 6 | — | 0 | — | — | 20 | 1 | 0 |
| Kalidou Koulibaly | 72 | 5.2 | — | 0 | — | — | 37 | 1 | 0 |
Sub-Agent Deep Dive
Squad Analyst
Norway arrive with elite club-level attacking firepower — Erling Haaland (8.20 this season) is in outstanding form and is well backed by Martin Ødegaard (7.30) as a creator. The defence looks competent at club level (Ajer, Østigård, Møller-Wolfe) and Nyland is a steady option in goal, but the squad shows limited secondary scoring options beyond Haaland.
Senegal present a solid, experienced core with Édouard Mendy (6.90) and senior defenders (Koulibaly, Niakhaté) posting reasonable club seasons, but their attacking numbers at club level are modest — Sadio Mané and Ismaïla Jackson have underwhelming outputs and the most promising attacker (Mbaye) has very limited minutes. Midfield is industrious rather than creative, and the squad looks vulnerable to teams with elite finishers.
Norway possesses a genuinely elite attacking threat anchored by Erling Haaland (8.20 rating, 2G in 1 app), whose clinical finishing and physical dominance create a one-man dependency at striker. The midfield is competent with Ødegaard (7.30) providing creative support and Berge (7.20) offering defensive stability, but lacks the creative depth to consistently unlock defenses. The defense is solid but unspectacular—Møller Wolfe (7.70) and Ajer (7.20) form a reasonable center-back pairing, though the fullback options (Ryerson, Heggem) are workmanlike rather than elite. Nyland (6.70, age 35) in goal is adequate but not commanding.
Senegal presents a more balanced but less explosive squad. The defense is their strongest asset—Diatta (6.90) is a tireless worker, and Koulibaly (6.20, age 34) provides experience despite declining athleticism; the backline is organized and compact. The midfield is aging and conservative (Gueye 36, Mané 33) with limited creative spark—Sarr (6.30) offers some dynamism but the unit lacks penetration. The attack is severely undermanned with Jackson (5.90) struggling and only Mbaye (7.50, age 17) showing promise in limited minutes; this is a critical vulnerability. Mendy (6.90) is a reliable goalkeeper but the overall squad lacks the quality to compete with elite attacking sides.
Norway possesses two genuinely world-class talents in Erling Haaland and Martin Ødegaard, both of whom are in excellent form based on their recent club performances. The supporting cast appears solid and functional, creating a team with clear, potent avenues to goal.
Senegal's squad is built on a core of experienced, well-known players, but their current club form is a major concern. Key figures like Sadio Mané and Nicolas Jackson are underperforming, and the team may need to rely on unproven young talent for an attacking spark.
Norway possess elite attacking quality led by Haaland's exceptional club form (8.20 rating, 2 goals from 5 shots). Midfield is anchored by Ødegaard's creativity and solid contributions from Berge and Aursnes, while the defense shows resilience with Østigård, Ajer and overlapping threat from Møller Wolfe. Goalkeeping is adequate but aging with Nyland; overall squad depth is thin beyond the starters.
Senegal's attack looks limited and disjointed on current club form with Jackson struggling (5.90 rating) and heavy reliance on substitutes like young Mbaye. Midfield lacks control and creativity, defense is experienced but aging (Koulibaly 34, Gueye 36 in midfield), and while Mendy is a reliable keeper the overall squad lacks the quality and depth to dominate.