

AI Predictions




AI Consensus
4 of 4 AIs predict: France Win
RESULT: France 3-0 Iraq · 4 AIs correct
Expected Goals
| AI | FRA xG | IRQ xG | Total | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.40 | 0.60 | 3.00 | 36% | |
| 2.80 | 0.90 | 3.70 | 52% | |
| 3.80 | 0.20 | 4.00 | 18% | |
| 2.40 | 0.40 | 2.80 | 28% | |
| Average | 2.85 | 0.53 | 3.38 | 34% |
Prediction Analysis
“France win probability 78% vs market implied 94.3%. Market is overpricing France due to Iraq's opening loss (1-4), but my analysis suggests 78% is more realistic given Iraq's defensive structure and France's xG underperformance. At 1.06, this is a heavy favorite with limited upside, but mandatory bet. Allocating $400 reflects conviction tempered by poor historical ROI on <1.30 odds (-32.54%).”
“I estimate France's win probability at ~91% vs the market's vig‑adjusted ~88.9% — squad quality, Mbappé's form, midfield control and Iraq's defensive fragility create a small but real overlay to the book.”
“All 5 analysts unanimously agree on massive France superiority (elite squad, form, context, morale). My 88% win probability exceeds the ~91% implied by 1.06 after overround, with very low upset risk given Iraq's weakness.”
“Mandatory bet. My probability of a France win (~97%) is higher than the market's implied 94.3%, but the odds are extremely short. Staking the minimum to allocate capital to better value markets.”
Premium AI Predictions
PRO4 of 4 Premium AIs predict: France Win
From ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, Grok
xG Home
1.84
xG Away
0.92
Total Goals
2.76
BTTS
58%
Full analysis from Opus 4.8, GPT-5.5 & more
Upgrade — $9Last updated Jun 22, 4:22 AM (free)
AI Predictions

Score: 3-0
xG: 2.4 vs 0.6

Score: 3-1
xG: 2.8 vs 0.9

Score: 4-0
xG: 3.8 vs 0.2

Score: 3-0
xG: 2.4 vs 0.4
AI Reasoning
“All analysts agree France are heavy favourites — superior squad, recent scoring form and tournament context point to a decisive France win. I take a bold lean to France winning and a smaller overlay on Over 2.5 because Iraq have defensive issues and France create high-quality chances even at a neutral venue.”
Model: GPT-5 Mini
Expected Goals (xG)
3 goals from 0.00 xG
Team Statistics
Match Events
Formation
Top Performers
Starting XI & Substitutes
Player Stats
France| Player | Min | Rtg | G | A | Sh | SoT | Pas | Tkl | YC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappé ★ | 89 | 9.3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 39 | 1 | 0 |
| O. Dembélé | 68 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 43 | 1 | 0 |
| M. Olise | 68 | 8.5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 42 | 1 | 0 |
| D. Upamecano | 90 | 8.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 78 | 1 | 0 |
| J. Koundé | 83 | 7.45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 41 | 1 | 0 |
| W. Saliba | 90 | 7.44 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 64 | 1 | 0 |
| R. Cherki | 22 | 7.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 0 |
| L. Digne | 90 | 7.15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 60 | 0 | 0 |
| M. Koné | 90 | 7.12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 73 | 3 | 0 |
| M. Gusto | 7 | 6.96 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| A. Rabiot | 90 | 6.91 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 72 | 1 | 0 |
| M. Maignan | 90 | 6.88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
| M. Thuram | 1 | 6.6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| M. Akliouche | 7 | 6.52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 0 |
| D. Doué | 22 | 6.46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
| B. Barcola | 83 | 6.39 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 32 | 2 | 0 |
Player Stats
Iraq| Player | Min | Rtg | G | A | Sh | SoT | Pas | Tkl | YC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Farji | 21 | 6.74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Zidane Iqbal | 90 | 6.66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 71 | 3 | 0 |
| Merchas Doski | 90 | 6.57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 58 | 4 | 0 |
| Akam Hashim | 90 | 6.48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 71 | 1 | 0 |
| Aymen Hussein | 26 | 6.37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Z. Ismaeel | 60 | 6.27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 46 | 3 | 0 |
| A. Qasem | 90 | 6.27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0 |
| A. Sher | 22 | 6.25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 0 |
| Ali Al Hamadi | 64 | 6.21 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 0 |
| Rebin Solaka | 30 | 6.13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 0 |
| Zayed Tahseen | 60 | 6.04 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 1 | 0 |
| Amir Al Ammari | 68 | 6.02 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 47 | 1 | 1 |
| Hussein Ali | 90 | 5.92 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 2 | 0 |
| Youssef Amyn | 30 | 5.76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Ibraheem Bayesh | 69 | 5.66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 2 | 0 |
| Ahmed Basil | 90 | 5.58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 44 | 0 | 0 |
Sub-Agent Deep Dive
Squad Analyst
France look the superior side on club-form evidence: a front line led by Kylian Mbappé (in clear scoring form) and creative support from Olise and Dembélé gives them strong attacking firepower, while midfielders (Tchouaméni, Rabiot) show control at club level. Centre-back pairing and Upamecano’s club form point to defensive resilience, but the sample is small and there is a tangible dependence on Mbappé for goals if other forwards (Thuram/Mateta) aren’t reproducing club minutes.
Iraq present a hardworking, organised unit with Merchas Doski and a reliable workrate from midfielders at club level, and Aymen Hussein carrying the goalscoring burden. Overall club-quality is moderate: midfield competitiveness is evident but attacking depth and top-end match winners beyond Hussein are limited, leaving them vulnerable to a high-quality France attack.
France fields a genuinely elite attacking unit anchored by Mbappé (8.20 rating, 2 goals in 1 app) and supported by creative midfielders Olise (7.60, 1 assist) and Rabiot (7.50, 1 assist). The defense is solid with Upamecano (7.90) leading a well-organized backline, though Saliba (6.30) and Hernández (6.50) show modest form. Critical concern: only 1 competitive appearance per player means limited tournament rhythm and cohesion data—this is a squad built on pedigree rather than proven tournament form.
Iraq presents a balanced but significantly weaker squad with limited attacking penetration—Aymen Hussein (7.20) is the only forward with meaningful output (1 goal), and supporting attackers Al Hamadi (6.70) and Qasem (6.70) lack clinical finishing. Midfield is functional but uninspired (Amir Al Ammari 6.90 best), and the defense shows fragility with Zayed Tahseen (5.20) already booked and multiple players in the 6.0 range. Goalkeeper Jalal Hassan (6.20, age 34) is aging and unproven at this level.
France possesses an elite squad with world-class talent in every position, evidenced by their strong opening performance. Kylian Mbappé provides a lethal cutting edge, supported by a creative and physically dominant midfield featuring Olise and Tchouaméni. The defense is stacked with top-tier players, making them formidable opponents across the pitch.
Iraq is a hard-working team but is significantly outmatched in terms of individual quality. While Aymen Hussein provides a goal threat and Merchas Doski is a solid defender, the squad lacks depth and top-tier talent to compete with a powerhouse like France. They will likely be forced into a defensive posture for the majority of the match.
France possess an elite attacking core with Mbappé (8.20 rating, 2 goals) and Barcola (7.90, 1 goal) already delivering high output from limited games, supported by creative midfielders Olise (7.60, 4 key passes) and Rabiot (7.50, 1 assist). Defensive resilience is strong with Upamecano (7.90, 6 tackles) and Tchouaméni (7.30, 3 tackles) dominating duels, though early-season data is sparse for some bench players. Goalkeeping is solid with Maignan but the squad shows slight depth concerns beyond the starting XI.
Iraq show moderate midfield control and defensive effort led by Doski (6.90, 6 tackles, 11/13 duels) and Al Ammari (6.90, 3 key passes, 1 assist), with Hussein (7.20, 1 goal) providing the main threat. However, overall ratings lag significantly behind France, attacking output is limited, and the backline (especially Zayed Tahseen at 5.20) looks vulnerable. Goalkeeping is average and the squad lacks the quality depth to compete against top-tier talent.