

AI Predictions




AI Consensus
4 of 4 AIs predict: Senegal Win
RESULT: Senegal 5-0 Iraq · 4 AIs correct
Expected Goals
| AI | SEN xG | IRQ xG | Total | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.00 | 0.60 | 2.60 | 36% | |
| 1.85 | 0.55 | 2.40 | 28% | |
| 1.90 | 0.80 | 2.70 | 52% | |
| 1.85 | 0.65 | 2.50 | 38% | |
| Average | 1.90 | 0.65 | 2.55 | 39% |
Prediction Analysis
“I estimate Senegal ~80% to win based on clear squad quality advantage and Iraq's poor attacking form/goalkeeping; the market-implied normalized win chance (~76.1%) underestimates Senegal's likelihood to convert superiority into a victory in this dead‑rubber.”
“Mandatory bet. The price is poor value given Senegal's missing GK and recent form, but they remain the most likely winner. Stake is minimized due to the low odds and negative ROI history in this odds band.”
“Squad and context analysts both rate Senegal clear favorites with superior quality and motivation edge in a dead rubber; my 68% win probability exceeds market's ~73% implied (post-vig) given Iraq's extremely limited attack.”
“Squad Analyst and Form Analyst both favor Senegal despite poor form. My 58% win probability vs market's 80% implies odds are slightly overpriced, but Senegal's superior attacking talent (Sarr 2 goals in 165 min, Mané's creativity) and Iraq's catastrophic 1-goal output in 2 matches justifies backing Home. Dead-rubber context reduces confidence but doesn't eliminate edge.”
Premium AI Predictions
PRO4 of 4 Premium AIs predict: Senegal Win
From ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, Grok
xG Home
1.84
xG Away
0.92
Total Goals
2.76
BTTS
58%
Full analysis from Opus 4.8, GPT-5.5 & more
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AI Predictions

Score: 2-0
xG: 2.0 vs 0.6

Score: 2-0
xG: 1.9 vs 0.6

Score: 2-1
xG: 1.9 vs 0.8

Score: 2-0
xG: 1.9 vs 0.7
AI Reasoning
“Senegal are the superior side on paper with more attacking quality and Iraq carry clear attacking and goalkeeping deficiencies; despite Senegal's blemishes and tournament fatigue, they should impose themselves in a dead‑rubber and win, likely keeping Iraq quiet. I allocate the bulk to the straight match-winner (where I see the clearest value versus the market) and a smaller ticket on -0.5 to capture the low-margin but positive edge that comes from Senegal simply avoiding a draw.”
Model: GPT-5 Mini
Expected Goals (xG)
5 goals from 3.20 xG
Team Statistics
Match Events
Formation
Top Performers
Starting XI & Substitutes
Player Stats
Senegal| Player | Min | Rtg | G | A | Sh | SoT | Pas | Tkl | YC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pape Gueye ★ | 38 | 9.6 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 45 | 1 | 1 |
| Lamine Camara | 57 | 8.3 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 45 | — | 0 |
| Idrissa Gana Gueye | 95 | 8.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 94 | 3 | 0 |
| Iliman Ndiaye | 38 | 8.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 20 | — | 0 |
| Ismaïla Sarr | 81 | 7.6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 19 | — | 0 |
| Nicolas Jackson | 38 | 7.3 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| Krépin Diatta | 95 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 64 | 3 | 0 |
| Habib Diarra | 57 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 17 | 2 | 0 |
| Moussa Niakhaté | 95 | 7 | — | — | 1 | — | 70 | — | 0 |
| Mory Diaw | 95 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 22 | — | 0 |
| Sadio Mané | 95 | 6.9 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 42 | — | 0 |
| Ibrahim Mbaye | 57 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 25 | — | 0 |
| Pathé Ismaël Ciss | 37 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 16 | — | 0 |
| Assane Diao | 14 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 11 | 1 | 0 |
| Abdoulaye Seck | 58 | 6.6 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 30 | — | 1 |
| Ismail Jakobs | 95 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 48 | 1 | 0 |
Player Stats
Iraq| Player | Min | Rtg | G | A | Sh | SoT | Pas | Tkl | YC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ali Yousif | 37 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Ahmed Basil | 45 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 22 | — | 0 |
| Ali Al-Hamadi | 58 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 7 | 1 | 0 |
| Amir Al-Ammari | 95 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 30 | 1 | 1 |
| Ibrahim Bayesh | 95 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 11 | 4 | 0 |
| Jalal Hassan | 50 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 12 | — | 0 |
| Kevin Yakob | 28 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 11 | — | 0 |
| Zidane Iqbal | 67 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 33 | 1 | 0 |
| Ahmed Qasem | 16 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — | 0 |
| Ali Jasim | 58 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 20 | — | 0 |
| Ahmed Hasan Maknazi | 37 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 6 | 3 | 0 |
| Frans Putros | 95 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | 22 | 3 | 0 |
| Merchas Doski | 95 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | 25 | 3 | 1 |
| Munaf Younus | 79 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | 21 | 1 | 0 |
| Akam Hashem | 95 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | 25 | 1 | 0 |
| Rebin Sulaka | 13 | 3 | — | 0 | — | — | 10 | — | 0 |
Sub-Agent Deep Dive
Squad Analyst
Senegal arrive with superior individual quality and attacking options based on this season's club form — Sarr has been the standout finisher and Mané the main creator, while Niakhaté has been reliable at the back. Concerns: an ageing center-back group and a missing É. Mendy (twisted knee) push responsibility onto a backup keeper and expose squad depth on the bench.
Iraq show organised, hard-working profiles at club level but lack a consistent attacking threat; Aymen Hussein is the main outlet while midfielders and full-backs provide work-rate rather than high-end creativity. The goalkeeping group and overall squad depth look limited this season, leaving them vulnerable if Senegal press and create chances.
Senegal presents a mixed squad profile with experienced core players but concerning depth and form issues. Idrissa Sarr (7.30) is the standout performer with 2 goals in limited appearances, while Sadio Mané (6.75) provides creative support despite age (33). However, the attacking line is severely underpowered: Jackson (6.25) has minimal impact, and the backup strikers (Ndiaye, Dieng, Mbaye) show minimal competitive minutes and low ratings. The midfield lacks cohesion with aging Gueye (36, 6.95) and limited depth beyond the starting XI. Defensively, Niakhaté (7.25) is solid, but Koulibaly (34, 5.75) shows declining form, and the backline lacks pace and consistency. Goalkeeping is a concern with Mendy (6.55) now injured and Diaw (6.90) untested.
Iraq's squad is fundamentally limited with minimal elite-level talent and concerning overall form metrics. Aymen Hussein (6.90) is the only attacking threat with 1 goal, but the forward line is collectively ineffective—Al Hamadi (6.45) has 4 shots with zero on target, and Qasem (6.50) offers little. The midfield is young and inexperienced (Jasim 21, Farji 21, Ismaeel 23) with limited creative output—no midfielder has recorded an assist. Defensively, the unit is fragile: Merchas Doski (6.80) carries heavy workload (10 tackles in 2 games), suggesting reactive defending; Hussein Ali (6.10, 23 years old) is underdeveloped; and the backline concedes 0.96 goals per game. Goalkeeping is weak with both keepers rated below 6.5, and Ahmed Basil (5.30) is particularly concerning.
Senegal possesses superior individual quality, particularly in midfield with the creative force of Sadio Mané and the goal-scoring form of Ismaïla Sarr. However, the squad is unbalanced, with a struggling attack led by an out-of-form Nicolas Jackson and significant concerns in defense due to Kalidou Koulibaly's decline.
Iraq's squad is built on defensive solidity, led by the outstanding Merchas Doski, and a hardworking midfield. Their attack is heavily reliant on Aymen Hussein, and they suffer from a significant lack of quality and depth in goal.
Senegal possess higher individual quality across positions, particularly in midfield where Sarr (7.30) and Gueye provide control and creativity, and in attack with Jackson and Mané showing involvement despite modest goal output. Defensive resilience is solid with Niakhaté (7.25) and Diatta, but the squad shows depth concerns with very limited minutes and low ratings from several attackers and the backup goalkeeper. The twisted knee injury to first-choice GK É. Mendy is a notable hit to goalkeeping stability.
Iraq display a compact and balanced unit with consistent minutes for most players and strong defensive contributions from Doski (10 tackles) and Z. Ismaeel (7 tackles). However, attacking quality remains limited with low ratings and minimal end product from forwards, relying heavily on set pieces or individual moments from Hussein. Midfield lacks standout creators, resulting in modest overall squad caliber compared to higher-rated opponents.